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Happy Saturday; have you been paying attention to the rally in solar stocks? Let me know what you think. Clean-tech momentum accelerated in August -- solar stocks gained about 9% for the month, based on the Bloomberg Solar Aggregate Total Return Index -- as a generational AI-driven power crunch is set to supercharge demand for solar and batteries, defying slowdown fears for leaders like First Solar. |
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On this week's BI Energy Exchange, we covered a lot of ground -- Orsted's challenges; tariffs that could target Russian crude flows; the latest outlook for commodities; data-center power demand in the Nordics, and much more! Catch the replay with Nathan Dean, Mike McGlone, Patricio Alvarez, Joao Martins and Rob Barnett. |
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by Rob Barnett and Patricio Alvarez A looming AI-driven power crunch in Texas bolsters the 2026-28 solar- and battery-demand outlook, defying an expected industry slowdown and helping push First Solar's sales growth above 20% the next two years vs. consensus' 17% and 13%. Peers such as Nextracker, Shoals and Array Technologies should also gain. Data-center load is projected to surge 8x by 2030, marking a generational investment cycle in solar and battery-power plants, which can be built relatively quickly. |
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by Joao Martins and Patricio Alvarez Nordic data-center power consumption, including from Stargate Norway and Brookfield's mega-project in Sweden, is poised to jump 3-4x by 2032, lifting earnings potential for Statkraft, Vattenfall and Fortum. Regional growth may outpace the European average on lower power prices, colder weather and a cleaner generation mix. By Patricio Alvarez and Joao Martins Orsted's offshore growth is clouded by mounting US policy hurdles and is weighing on the risk profile, highlighted by the halt of Revolution Wind in Rhode Island and plans for a 60 billion kroner rights offer, driven by the inability to sell a stake in Sunrise Wind. Revolution might resume but Orsted's expansion prospects are slowing in the US and Europe. by Salih Yilmaz and Bhargavi Sakthivel A severe global downturn could push Brent below $50 a barrel, with risks magnified if OPEC+ reignites a price war. Though it's a low-probability event, history shows oil can overshoot on the downside in crises like 2008 or 2020. In such a scenario, recession fears, weak demand and supply friction could leave prices depressed until a pullback restores balance. Companies like Steve Madden, Skechers and Apple with supply-chain exposure to Russian-oil-reliant China could face tariff-related headline risk in September. Lawmakers may seek to vote on legislation that would allow President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of at least 500% on such nations -- including India and Turkey -- if negotiations to end the war with Ukraine fail. Congress may defer to White House plans, which will delay a vote. The latest managed money (hedge fund) data, to Aug. 15, show waning Brent crude oil longs consistent with revisiting $60 a barrel. Natural gas speculators remain mildly short, as prices could autocorrelate toward $2 per million BTUs. Sell-stop risks in copper may pressure it toward $4 a pound, while corn shorts anticipate a $4-per-bushel ceiling. by Rob Barnett and Alessio Mastrandrea Clean-tech momentum accelerated in August -- solar stocks gained about 9% for the month, based on the Bloomberg Solar Aggregate Total Return Index -- as a generational AI-driven power crunch is set to supercharge demand for solar and batteries, defying slowdown fears for leaders like First Solar. Meanwhile, new Treasury guidance is pulling forward wind demand, lifting turbine orders for Vestas and peers ahead of a July 2026 deadline. The tailwinds extend to residential solar, where a battery-led inflection is creating upside for Sunrun and Enphase after a solid 2Q. |
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Missed One of Our Previous Calls: |
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